Created
Nov 25, 2025 10:51 PM
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URL
https://www.exponentialview.co/p/the-ai-productivity-paradox
The AI industry is sending mixed signals – markets are turning red while teams report real productivity gains. Today, I examine the latest research to understand this split reality.
Skip to the best part
(02:53) Unpacking three years of AI productivity data(09:54) The surprising group benefitting from AI
(14:33) Anthropic’s alarming discovery
(17:29) The counterintuitive truth about AI productivity
There is a lot of opinion in this space and not every hot take is built on reliable data. I stick to carefully executed research. To help you ground your stance, we’ve curated the studies behind this analysis and included the full talk transcript, available to Exponential View members.
Six studies you need to know
- Sarkar, S. K. (2025). AI Agents, Productivity, and Higher-Order Thinking: Early Evidence From Software Development. → Senior developers gain the most because they know how to direct and evaluate AI, which drives the biggest productivity jumps.