Research | Michael Howell | A Peak With A View

In truth, not much has changed in our thinking. We continue to maintain that rising Global Liquidity is driving asset markets higher. Admittedly, the markets never move in straight lines, but the liquidity cycle unambiguously bottomed in October 2022, and we expect it to peak around late-2025. The chart below shows the Global Liquidity Cycle over five decades. We have stripped out the Emerging Markets to see the cycle pattern better, given the recent volatility in Chinese Liquidity.