Created
Feb 22, 2023 3:53 PM
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Great questions
- For decisions: is it the right decision assuming I live 6 more months, 6 more years, or 60 more years? (best decisions check out across all timescales)
- Ergodicity: how would/should we architect societies differently knowing that we are all individually unlikely to experience the average/expected outcome of events?
- How can we construct our lives to have a positive outcome if we lived 1,000 times?
- Quickly realize must optimize for survival to be able to repeatedly pursue positive outcomes
- See Naval “how to get rich” thread
- Brings focus on the types of survival insurance that maximize probability of survival + behaviors that get to end state e.g. gun for self-defense, defibrillators in public spaces, eating well, exercising but not to level that could cause injury, etc.
- How do we avoid dismantling forms of low-probability, high-consequence insurance?
- “The point of investing to find places where it is safe not to diversify” (Munger). True of everything in life.
- Redundancy shows up everywhere in life e.g. we have two eyes, two kidneys, etc…biologically expensive but increases odds of survival
- “We are in the business of taking good shots (not making shots)…important distinction (Spurs, Greg Popovich)
- Where are there grey swans (e.g. the pandemic…we knew one would happen eventually) and what can we do to be ready?
See published discussion on YouTube