It is wrong to set ambitious objectives
- Ambitious objectives are by definition hard
- If hard it means you do not know the stepping stones needed to achieve the ambitious objective, otherwise you’d just do them
- But achieving ambitious objectives are deceptive; the stepping stones rarely look like the right places to go
- Useful directions can appear incorrect
- Useless directions can appear correct
- Deception is ubiquitous across search spaces; there is no way to know which way you need to go…you just need to be open minded as to where you go
- This means: you cannot ensure you will achieve ambitious objectives
- This is depressing…what can I then do?
- But the corollary, increasing the probability that anything good can happen, is encouraging
- Curiosity / interest is the best guide
- If you have a mindset where you are willing to collect stepping stones along the way, but are somewhat agnostic as to where they lead, you maximize jumping off points that may lead to large achievements
“Be a collector of interesting things”
Suggestion: pursue what is interesting / pursue novelty
- This is not randomness…randomness is rolling dice
- Pursuing the interesting is guided by your life experience
- This research suggests that introducing anything objective into the pursuit of ambition must be done very carefully, as objectives tend to be a poison pill that destroys the ability to pursue what is interesting.
Novelty and interestingness are principles. It is a rich form of using information to explore/exploit. It is high-dimensional exploitation.
Paul Graham “Most startups look like toys at the beginning.”
Role of intuition? Can we refine our interest-compass?
- Intuition is the same thing as following interest
- We like objectives because we can assess progress vs. objectives…we are so uncomfortable with uncertainty
- Intuition can’t be measured…so people assume it is dangerous or unproductive…BUT INTUTION IS A REFLECTION OF YOUR LIFE HISTORY
How do we identify the right people for tasks?
[1] We don’t need everyone pursuing ambitious projects
[2] For those that can/should/want to —
Have you ever written a story no one asked you to write? Written a program — show me? How often did you draw pictures as a child? i.e. ARE YOU AN EXPLORER? You must be driven by innate curiosity…not what people tell you to do.
WANT TO SEE A PORTFOLIO OF WHAT SOMEONE DID FOR ITS OWN SAKE.
Can adopt this in fractal manner
individual >> family >> company >> communities
School should have some amount of rewarding exploration, not forcing conformity.
Any great achievement e.g. all kids scoring 100 on tests, is subject to the myth of objectives, …like any other ambitious objective the stepping stones to get there will not look like the ones you need.
You cannot cause people to be innovative by forcing them to report back metrics every month.
We are all so worried about the dangers of not having an objective. What about the dangers of having an objective?
Must start by deciding what your risk tolerance is. This is a much less certain route. Must be comfortable with it, and understand that the tradeoff is less discovery, exploration, etc.
Funny amount of overlap with concept of love e.g. the best way to find love is to stop trying to find it.
The best way to make a billion dollars is to not try to make a billion dollars. Focus on what is interesting. The path of interestingness is the only path that can lead to a billion dollars. But you will not know where the path will lead.
Some practical advice
- Keep multiple balls in the air
- Get into a profession that lets you do this
- Be somewhere that failures are accepted — then construct a portfolio to become resilient amidst failures
Robert Fritz: A straight line is often not the most direct route.
Ways to help
- Spread the word
- Help figure out how to refine how institutions / objective systems can evolve in light of this research
- Experiment with institutional change if you are a gatekeeper (and feedback)
- Keep in touch