Tags
Invest Like the Best PodcastAntonio GraciasPatrick O'ShaughnessySpaceXGoPuff
Date Consumed
May 2, 2022
Count (Month)
1
Created
May 3, 2022 1:54 PM
Last Edited
Oct 12, 2022 4:32 PM
Pro-entropic investing Antonio Gracias // Valor Capital
Definitions
- Resilient companies: companies that recover quickly. Will invest in these.
- Pro-entropic companies: companies that are good at chaos. The holy grail of investing.
Thesis
- The world is getting more chaotic. De-globalization, tech disruption, climate change, politics, demographics...so much changing at once.
- We want to find things that get better when chaos goes up.
Examples: valuable service to people that they need no matter what happens
- SpaceX = whatever we can imagine happening in the world, SpaceX just gets better. The world needs it.
- GoPuff = disrupting convenience stores, which tend to do well in all economic environments. Valuable service no matter what happens, and people need it no matter what happens.
Bayesian thinkers
- How does company fare if nothing changes?
- How does company fare if good things happen?
- How does company fare if bad things happen?
- More broadly, how does company fare when unknown things happen?
Is strategy pro-entropic?
Is management pro-entropic?
A great pro-entropic thinker is someone who is able to keep their Bayesian P() state open on options. Keep optionality open until the appropriate moment, then close it for execution. Opening / closing / opening probability tree. THIS IS HOW I THINK. Great to find.